GTA 6 Launch Sales: How Many Copies Will It Sell?

How many copies will GTA 6 sell at launch? According to analytics firm Newzoo, between 37 and 51 million in the first week alone, for $3.3 to $4.5 billion, and up to $5.2 billion, close to 60 million copies, in its most optimistic scenario. Those numbers are backed by already-record preorders that would make Grand Theft Auto VI the biggest launch in video game history.

Newzoo Projects 37 to 51 Million Copies in One Week

On July 16, 2026, specialist firm Newzoo published the first serious, numbers-backed projection for GTA 6 sales. Its range: 37 to 51 million copies moved in the first week alone, for revenue between $3.3 and $5.2 billion. The scenarios matter. The conservative, “front-loaded” case (sales heavily concentrated in the opening days) lands around $3.3 billion, or roughly 37 million copies. The central scenario, modeled on the trajectory of a “proven sequel,” puts the game around $4.5 billion, or nearly 51 million copies. And if sales spread out more over time, the upper bound climbs to $5.2 billion, close to 60 million copies.

For a sense of scale: no game has ever come close to those volumes over seven days. Analysts don’t agree on the time frame, but all of them describe a launch unlike anything before it.

The Strongest Pre-Order Campaign on Record

Where do these numbers come from? Not a crystal ball, but real preorders. Newzoo tracked roughly $180 million spent on digital preorders in the United States and the five largest European markets during the last week of June, when reservations opened. Scaling that against the global distribution of players (69% of GTA 5’s console base is concentrated in those six markets), the firm extrapolates a worldwide total of about $260 million in the first week. Its conclusion is blunt: this is “the strongest pre-order campaign on record” for a video game.

That base is solid because the price, at least, is known. GTA 6 sells for $79.99 in the Standard edition and $99.99 in the Ultimate edition, a threshold Rockstar had never crossed and one that mechanically inflates every revenue estimate. We break down the full bill in our look at the GTA 6 price, and the complete calendar lives in our release date tracker.

No, GTA 6 Did Not Top $1 Billion in Preorders

That’s the value of Newzoo’s report: it shuts down a piece of misinformation. Since late June, accounts on social media had been claiming GTA 6 already passed $1 billion in preorders. Newzoo flatly debunked that figure, noting that the data points to roughly $260 million in the first week, and that the majority of sales will happen near launch, not months ahead.

The caveat is right in line with our house rule: with GTA 6, half the “shock numbers” going around are inflated or made up, like the bogus 39-million-preorders total already debunked in June. $260 million in preorders over seven days is already an all-time record for the industry. You don’t need a phantom billion for the launch to be historic. The same instinct applies to the game’s budget, which we untangle in our analysis of GTA 6, the most expensive game ever made.

What Would Make GTA 6 an Entertainment Record

Newzoo isn’t the only one running the numbers. Investment firm Konvoy sees even bigger: about 85 million copies in the first two months and up to $7.6 billion in revenue, adding up game sales, GTA+ subscriptions and in-game purchases. Take-Two, for its part, has set a record forecast of $8.0 to $8.2 billion in net bookings for its fiscal year ending March 2027, which CEO Strauss Zelnick explicitly attributes to the GTA 6 launch.

Those figures top the biggest box-office openings. That’s the whole point of this launch: turning thirteen years of waiting into one of the largest commercial events in entertainment, across every medium. The bar to beat is still GTA 5, which has sold more than 225 million copies, the second best-selling game in history. Part of that revenue will actually stretch well beyond launch, through the future GTA Online and its microtransactions, and through the other records already broken by the game before it even ships. To stay on top of when reservations open, keep an eye on our preorder page.

One caveat remains: these are forecasts, not final tallies. The firms extrapolate from preorders and Rockstar’s track record, and the gap between $3.3 and $7.6 billion shows just how wide the margin of uncertainty is. But they all converge on one point: with less than four months to release, no analyst is betting on anything other than a record.